No one can accuse Elon Musk of missing in ambition and sometimes all through his profession, Tesla’s (TSLA) detractors have needed to beat a hasty retreat after underestimating the guru-like CEO’s capability to defy the skeptics. However, following the EV chief’s 2021 Annual Meeting, Needham’s Rajvindra Gill thinks the corporate’s bold objective doesn’t appear sensible.

The firm reiterated its intention to ship 20 million EVs by 2030 whereas on the similar time making their choices extra inexpensive.

“Although we believe that EVs will becomes cheaper over time,” mentioned the 5-star analyst, “The goal of 20MM seems improbable considering the manufacturing footprint requirements that this would entail over the next 8-9 years.”

Based on the belief that 100 — 120 million “light vehicles” are produced per yr, this could quantity to a 15-20% share of the world’s gentle car market, a feat Gill is “skeptical” Tesla has the means to realize.

With a gift “production base” of 1 million automobiles, and the potential so as to add an additional 1 million quickly with the Giga Texas and Giga Berlin factories, Tesla would wish capability for 18 million extra to realize this objective. Assuming 500,000 car capability at every plant, then an additional 36 Gigafactories can be wanted with the intention to hit the goal.

With work at present ongoing, Musk has prompt that capability at Giga CA and Giga NV could possibly be elevated by 50%. Even so, with 750,000 car capability, Tesla would wish 24 new Gigafactories at a CAPEX roughly $125 billion, over a interval of round 8 years, equating to three per yr, greater than the current 2 additions per yr, an endeavor which Musk himself admits “is challenging.”

“In the face of ever-increasing competition from other auto OEMs with EVs, these goals look even more difficult,” the analyst summed up.

And though Gill admits momentum is on the corporate’s facet after the newest quarterly deliveries “exceeded expectations,” given the inventory’s valuation, the analyst stays cautious on all issues Tesla.

Accordingly, Gill reiterated an Underperform (i.e. Sell) ranking, with out suggesting a set value goal. (To watch Gill’s monitor report, click here)

A have a look at the consensus breakdown doesn’t encourage a lot confidence both. TSLA inventory’s Hold consensus ranking is predicated on 12 Buys vs. 7 Holds and Sells, every. Over the following 12 months, shares are anticipated to lose ~15% of their worth, given the common value goal clocks in at $691.71. (See TSLA stock analysis)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed on this article are solely these of the featured analyst. The content material is meant for use for informational functions solely. It is essential to do your individual evaluation earlier than making any funding.

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